from Rasmussen Reports
New polling on the presidential race puts Indiana in the toss-up category less than a week before Election Day.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds John McCain slipping below the 50% level of support and clinging to a three-point lead over Barack Obama. McCain now attracts support from 49% of voters and Obama is supported by 46%.
Earlier in the month, McCain had a seven-point lead in the Hoosier State.
Although Indiana has been one of the most reliably Republican states in the nation, it has clearly been a target for the Obama campaign this year. Parts of northwestern Indiana are effectively suburbs of Chicago, Obama’s home base.
During the Indiana Democratic Primary, strong turnout in this region almost enabled Obama to pull off an upset victory over Hillary Clinton. It is possible that a strong turnout in that region of the state could do the same again in the general election.
(Want a daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).
Nationally, Obama has been leading McCain every day for more than a month in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. He also has a healthy lead in the Electoral College projections.
With release of this poll, Indiana moves from "Leans Republican" to "Toss-Up" in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. Today, Montana also has moved from McCain's column to Toss-Up status.
In Indiana, McCain is viewed favorably by 57%, Obama by 49%.
McCain leads among those who regularly attend church while Obama leads among those who rarely or never attend services.
Obama leads by a two-to-one margin among those who consider the economy to be the top issue (see full demographic crosstabs.)
Not surprisingly, the economy is the top issue of the election for 50% of Indiana voters, with no other issue coming close. Voters in Indiana trust McCain more on this issue by a 48% to 45% margin.
Rasmussen Markets data shows that Republicans are currently given a 58.3% chance of winning Indiana’s 11 Electoral College votes this fall.
Friday, October 31, 2008
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2 comments:
Support for McCain may be higher than you think. Only time will tell whether the Bradley Effect will influence Indiana and the rest of the nation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect
The closeness of the race is turning international eyes on Indiana; in the UK the Times Online blog has a write up by Holly Watt entitled "Indiana - part of a different battle?" They quote a poll that shows Obama slightly ahead, which I don't see.
"But the reason Indiana really matters is because it is part of the landslide strategy, a strategy that evolved from the vast resources – and huge confidence – of the Obama team.
This is not an election strategy; it is a realigning election strategy." http://timesonline.typepad.com/uselections/2008/10/indiana---part.html
Found a NYTimes article from early October about Elkhart, IN., its growing unemployment, and how that might influence the vote.
"Whether voters here believe that Senator John McCain, the Republican presidential nominee, or Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee, can offer solutions to the dire economy seems a matter of greatly mixed opinion."
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/12/us/politics/12indiana.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&adxnnlx=1225585109-FiExtyIID9lh2iFRN1HJSA
Looks like no one will know until Tuesday which way Hoosiers will lean.
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