People who know I volunteered for a year in John Edwards' Campaign To Change America often ask me this question. My answer now, just it has been since he left the race January 30, is that I think he won't because I think he can't.
I think people have the idea he's torturing (delicately) Mr. Obama and Ms. Clinton by withholding his approval, holding out for that last goodie. He had some fun with this idea on the Colbert Report . But I don't think that's what's going on here.
For one thing, when would his endorsement have had the most influence - when the contest was in doubt, or when it wasn't? In other words, I don't think he would have held out just to have some impact in North Carolina.
In the New York Times today, Julie Bosman seems to make the case that the Edwards are jerks for not endorsing SOMEONE. Check out this sentence (about a third of the way in)
"The silence, particularly from Mr. Edwards, is strange."Really? But in the same pararagraph (oddly), comes a comment worthy of attention.
"Joni Barnes of Wilmington (NC) said she believed that he was waiting for a
nominee to be chosen. 'I think he doesn't want to create any more division
within the party,' Ms. Barnes said."
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/29/us/politics/29edwards.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
Me too, Joni. I'll also predict people will see so much of him in the general election campaign, they may grow sick of him. That's where I think he can bring serious juice. He will be critical in getting people like me enthused about someone who doesn't enthuse them much.
Let's go back to my assertion that he won't endorse because he can't.
If we assume there's a good reason for John Edwards to endorse someone, he nonetheless has a problem (or two).
It would be his inclination to support Barack Obama. Obama better epitomizes the Edwards "challenge the system" mentality. Edwards' entire campaign was designed to defeat Hillary Clinton - at least in part by emphasizing her connections with various and sundry entrenched powers.
But Obama's disparaging comments about the work it takes to create good public policy ideas and his own tepid policy proposals are discouraging. The kicker, of course, is his health care initiative.
If imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, then Hillary Clinton must think highly of John Edwards. Her health care proposal is nearly a clone of his. And since she's running (and he's not), it's her plan now.
The Edwards plan seemed likely to finesse into a single payer system, but wouldn't have turned everything upside down immediately. By requiring universal participation, the need for underwriting (investigating people's medical background, rating up premiums or denying coverage) would be eliminated. Underwriting is a huge expense, which provides no health care to anyone. Insurance companies' business would shift more towards reinsurance (ala Lloyd's of London) by bidding on "pools" (Health Markets in the Edwards plan) which would be community rated - the sytem used for large group policies.
The Obama plan, by contrast, leaves the need for insurance companies to underwrite intact. Without a mandate, the insurance companies must evaluate the specific pool of applicants, instead of judging the populace at large. One way requires significant investigation, the other simple mathematics.
Paul Krugman, noted economist and New York Times columnist, noted that there would be a pretty small overall cost difference between the Clinton and Obama plans. That means that, per person, the Obama plan is significantly more expensive. And each person is what we should care about, in all ways.
And as you go go down the line, Ms. Clinton's policy proposals are almost all a bit more progressive than Mr. Obama's.
So it's a bit of a hoot that the Republicans are rolling out this "Barack Obama is too far out of the mainstream" campaign. They're aiming it at the most conservative candidate to vy for the Democratic Party nomination.
Looks like they're running low on ideas...
At this point, you probably can see John's problem.
And mine, I might add.
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