Iowa looks good for Edwards and America

by Don Wheeler

I recently heard on NPR that twenty-five percent of Iowans had had personal contact with a Presidential candidate in this cycle. In my one trip there this summer, it certainly seemed clear that Iowa residents take their caucuses quite seriously.

All the polls are showing a statistical dead heat for Edwards/Obama/Clinton on the first choice vote, but there seems to be little coverage on people's second choices.

Second choices matter a lot in caucus states (Iowa included) because if your first choice doesn't achieve a minimum of fifteen percent of the vote, your second choice receives your vote (assuming the fifteen percent minimum). No one aside from the "big three" seems likely to reach that threshold and the overwhelming second choice of supporters of the other candidates is John Edwards.

This makes it pretty clear that the Iowa race is John Edwards' to lose, despite what the chattering press may have you believe.

Polls are showing him closing the gap in other early primary/caucus states as well, though behind in the other three.

Rasmussen polls have consistently shown John Edwards as the most formidable Democrat against any Republican in any state. It shows him winning in Kansas, Oklahoma and Kentucky in the general election against any Republican. These are states the Democrats haven't won in decades.

Once Edwards wins Iowa, people are likely to finally focus on the reality of the electability question. That reality is Edwards does best, followed by Obama and Clinton has real trouble beating any Republican in lots of states.

That's how it looks to me.