Monday, July 13, 2009

Boiling the frog

By PAUL KRUGMAN
New York Times

Is America on its way to becoming a boiled frog?

I’m referring, of course, to the proverbial frog that, placed in a pot of cold water that is gradually heated, never realizes the danger it’s in and is boiled alive. Real frogs will, in fact, jump out of the pot — but never mind. The hypothetical boiled frog is a useful metaphor for a very real problem: the difficulty of responding to disasters that creep up on you a bit at a time.

And creeping disasters are what we mostly face these days.

I started thinking about boiled frogs recently as I watched the depressing state of debate over both economic and environmental policy. These are both areas in which there is a substantial lag before policy actions have their full effect — a year or more in the case of the economy, decades in the case of the planet — yet in which it’s very hard to get people to do what it takes to head off a catastrophe foretold.

And right now, both the economic and the environmental frogs are sitting still while the water gets hotter.

Start with economics: last winter the economy was in acute crisis, with a replay of the Great Depression seeming all too possible. And there was a fairly strong policy response in the form of the Obama stimulus plan, even if that plan wasn’t as strong as some of us thought it should have been.

At this point, however, the acute crisis has given way to a much more insidious threat. Most economic forecasters now expect gross domestic product to start growing soon, if it hasn’t already. But all the signs point to a “jobless recovery”: on average, forecasters surveyed by The Wall Street Journal believe that the unemployment rate will keep rising into next year, and that it will be as high at the end of 2010 as it is now.

Now, it’s bad enough to be jobless for a few weeks; it’s much worse being unemployed for months or years. Yet that’s exactly what will happen to millions of Americans if the average forecast is right — which means that many of the unemployed will lose their savings, their homes and more.

To head off this outcome — and remember, this isn’t what economic Cassandras are saying; it’s the forecasting consensus — we’d need to get another round of fiscal stimulus under way very soon. But neither Congress nor, alas, the Obama administration is showing any inclination to act. Now that the free fall is over, all sense of urgency seems to have vanished.

This will probably change once the reality of the jobless recovery becomes all too apparent. But by then it will be too late to avoid a slow-motion human and social disaster.

Still, the boiled-frog problem on the economy is nothing compared with the problem of getting action on climate change.

Put it this way: if the consensus of the economic experts is grim, the consensus of the climate experts is utterly terrifying. At this point, the central forecast of leading climate models — not the worst-case scenario but the most likely outcome — is utter catastrophe, a rise in temperatures that will totally disrupt life as we know it, if we continue along our present path. How to head off that catastrophe should be the dominant policy issue of our time.

But it isn’t, because climate change is a creeping threat rather than an attention-grabbing crisis. The full dimensions of the catastrophe won’t be apparent for decades, perhaps generations. In fact, it will probably be many years before the upward trend in temperatures is so obvious to casual observers that it silences the skeptics. Unfortunately, if we wait to act until the climate crisis is that obvious, catastrophe will already have become inevitable.

And while a major environmental bill has passed the House, which was an amazing and inspiring political achievement, the bill fell well short of what the planet really needs — and despite this faces steep odds in the Senate.

What makes the apparent paralysis of policy especially alarming is that so little is happening when the political situation seems, on the surface, to be so favorable to action.

After all, supply-siders and climate-change-deniers no longer control the White House and key Congressional committees. Democrats have a popular president to lead them, a large majority in the House of Representatives and 60 votes in the Senate. And this isn’t the old Democratic majority, which was an awkward coalition between Northern liberals and Southern conservatives; this is, by historical standards, a relatively solid progressive bloc.

And let’s be clear: both the president and the party’s Congressional leadership understand the economic and environmental issues perfectly well. So if we can’t get action to head off disaster now, what would it take?

I don’t know the answer. And that’s why I keep thinking about boiling frogs.

Sunday, July 12, 2009

Truthout 7/12

Bill Moyers and Michael Winship Some Choice Words for "The Select Few"
http://www.truthout.org/071209A?n
Bill Moyers and Michael Winship, Truthout: "If you want to know what really matters in Washington, don't go to Capitol Hill for one of those hearings, or pay attention to those staged White House 'town meetings.' They're just for show. What really happens - the serious business of Washington - happens in the shadows, out of sight, off the record. Only occasionally - and usually only because someone high up stumbles - do we get a glimpse of just how pervasive the corruption has become."

Holder "Leaning Toward Appointing a Prosecutor" to Investigate Bush Torture Policy
http://www.truthout.org/071209B?n
Daniel Klaidman, Newsweek: "Obama doesn't want to look back, but Attorney General Eric Holder may probe Bush-era torture anyway."

Cindy Sheehan Takes On the Robber Class
http://www.truthout.org/071209C?n
Bob Fitrakis, The Free Press: "The United States has produced several mythic historical figures - Paul Bunyan, John Henry and the like - but our actual prophetic peace activists are actually far more interesting. People like Eugene Victor Debs, Emma Goldman, and in our present day, Cindy Sheehan."

New York Times to Charge for Online Content
http://www.truthout.org/071209D?n
Amanda Andrews, The Telegraph UK: "The tie-up in March served as a precursor to a key decision in August on how best to charge for access to the group's websites, reversing an earlier decision not to, and becoming the first major non-financial newspaper group to take the step."

Afghan Bombings Kill NATO Troops
http://www.truthout.org/071209E?n
BBC News: "Four NATO soldiers have been killed in Afghanistan, the coalition has said."

Obama Admin: No Grounds to Probe Afghan War Crimes
http://www.truthout.org/071209F?n
Lara Jakes, The Associated Press: "Obama administration officials said Friday they had no grounds to investigate the 2001 deaths of Taliban prisoners of war who human rights groups allege were killed by US-backed forces."

Henry A. Giroux Obama's Tortured Democracy
http://www.truthout.org/071209R?n
Henry A. Giroux, Truthout: "By refusing to release photos of those tortured by US forces, Obama sadly continues yet another element of the Bush regime, organized around an attempt to regulate the visual field, to mandate what can be seen and modify the landscape of the sensible and visible. And equally important, as Judith Butler points out, the Obama administration's application of the state-secrecy privilege grants it the power to determine 'which lives count as human and as living, and which do not.'"

Two US Marines Killed in Afghan Bomb Blasts
http://www.truthout.org/071209S?n
Jason Straziuso, The Associated Press: "A bomb blast killed two US Marines in Afghanistan's dangerous south, where thousands of American troops have deployed in a massive operation to oust Taliban fighters from the country's opium poppy region, officials said Sunday. Some 4,000 Marines moved into Helmand province this month, the largest Marine operation in Afghanistan since the 2001 US invasion. They have met little head-on resistance but remain vulnerable to guerrilla tactics like suicide and roadside bombs."

More Democrats Call for Investigating the CIA
http://www.truthout.org/071209T?n
Alex Isenstadt, The Politico: "Calls for an investigation into the Central Intelligence Agency intensified this weekend amid revelations that former Vice President Dick Cheney ordered the concealment of a covert agency spy program from Congress. Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Illinois) said that the Senate Intelligence Committee should 'absolutely' investigate the program."

Sotomayor Hearing Opens Supreme Court Debate
http://www.truthout.org/071209U?n
Andrew Quinn, Reuters: "Sonia Sotomayor looks almost certain to emerge from Senate hearings this week poised to become the first Hispanic member of the US Supreme Court. But political debate over President Barack Obama's plans for the top US court has only begun. Republicans are ready to resist what they fear could be a sharp leftward turn for the court under Obama's Democratic administration, reversing a steady tack to the right under former Republican President George W. Bush."

Band of House Dems Revisits Cramdown
http://www.truthout.org/071209V?n
Mike Lillis, The Washington Independent: "The Obama administration has all but abandoned it, and the Senate has already voted it down. But a proposal to allow struggling homeowners to escape foreclosure through bankruptcy got a boost Thursday from a small band of House Democrats convinced that voluntary mortgage modifications aren't alone solving the housing crisis. They have a point. Despite White House efforts to entice mortgage lenders and servicers to alter the terms of mortgage loans at their own discretion, participation in the program has been meager."

Soldiers Sue KBR for Chemical Exposure in Iraq
http://www.truthout.org/071209W?n
Kaitlynn Riely, The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: "Nearly as soon as they arrived, people became sick - not just the soldiers, but also the KBR employees. First, Mr. Powell said, their noses would bleed and their skin would feel raw. They developed sore throats and skin sores and began to cough up blood. When asked, KBR told soldiers it must be allergies or a reaction to the sand."

Africa's Bitter Cycle of Child Slavery
http://www.truthout.org/071209X?n
Robyn Dixon, The Los Angeles Times: "Rebecca Agwu told her 5-year-old son, John, not to cry when she sent him away to live with relatives four years ago. Mary Mootey sent away her 4-year-old son, Evans, telling him he was going off to school. The two boys, now 9, from the same town in Ghana, ended up being forced to work 14 hours a day fishing on Lake Volta and being beaten for the smallest lapse. Rewind about two decades: Rebecca Agwu was a child herself when her mother sent her away to live with an aunt."

FOCUS Cheney Linked to Secrecy of CIA Program
http://www.truthout.org/071209Z?n
Greg Miller, The Los Angeles Times: "The CIA kept a highly classified counter-terrorism program secret from Congress for eight years at the direction of then-Vice President Dick Cheney, according to sources familiar with an account that agency Director Leon E. Panetta provided recently to House and Senate committees."

Saturday, July 11, 2009

Truthout 7/11

How Rove Said He'd Answer Siegelman Prosecution Queries
http://www.truthout.org/071109A?n
Jason Leopold, Truthout: "While the details of Karl Rove's eight-hour deposition Tuesday before the House Judiciary Committee remain unknown, Rove has provided insight into how he said he intended to answer the panel's questions. The deposition concerned Rove's role in the firings of nine US attorneys and the alleged political prosecution of former Alabama Gov. Don Siegelman."

Obama Urges 'Strong, Sustainable' Governments in Africa
http://www.truthout.org/071109B?n
CNN: "President Obama praised Ghana on Saturday for working to put its democratic government on a firmer footing, with peaceful transfers to powers."

Lisa Pease CIA's History of Lying to Congress
http://www.truthout.org/071109C?n
Lisa Pease, Consortium News: "On TV this week, with a measure of disbelief in their voices, the pundits ask, did the CIA lie to or deliberately mislead Congress? How is that not a rhetorical question?"

Jim Hightower Big Bankers Mounting Sneak Attack on Consumers
http://www.truthout.org/071109D?n
Jim Hightower, AlterNet: "More than a year into the Wall Street bailout, I've yet to get any sort of 'thank you' from even a single one of the big banks that you and I propped up with $12 trillion in direct giveaways, indirect giveaways, government guarantees and sweetheart loans. You'd think their mommas would've taught them better. But I've begun to think that waiting on a simple gesture of banker gratitude is like waiting on Donald Trump to have a good hair day - ain't gonna happen."

Closed-Door Suu Kyi Trial Resumes in Myanmar
http://www.truthout.org/071109E?n
Reuters: "The widely condemned trial of Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi resumed on Friday, a week after the country's military rulers ignored a plea from the United Nations chief to drop security charges against her."

Suicides in US Army Rise in First Half of 2009
http://www.truthout.org/071109F?n
Agence France-Presse: "Suicides in the US Army are on the rise with 88 suspected cases in the first six months of the year, compared to 67 in the same period in 2008, according to Pentagon figures issued."

FOCUS Report: Bush Surveillance Program Was Massive
http://messenger.truthout.org/ss/link.php?M=253153&N=97&C=8fe8bdcce7192170d8f0ce88823895e0&L=756
Pamela Hess, The Associated Press: "The Bush administration built an unprecedented surveillance operation to pull in mountains of information far beyond the warrantless wiretapping previously acknowledged, a team of federal inspectors general reported Friday, questioning the legal basis for the effort but shielding almost all details on grounds they're still too secret to reveal."

Friday, July 10, 2009

Does Evan Bayh not understand what itemization means?

Don Wheeler

This came into my inbox today from our esteemed Senator, Evan Bayh:


In counties across Indiana, the property tax bill is in the mail. Many Hoosiers will once again face a steep bill due to the recent reassessment.

While property taxes are mainly a state and local issue, there is no law that says leaders in Washington can't do our part to help. Last year, I wrote and passed federal legislation allowing families who fill out the IRS short form to deduct—for the first time ever—up to $1,000 of their state and local property taxes from what they pay the federal government. Homeowners who itemize on their federal tax returns can already claim a generous deduction. As a matter of simple fairness, non-itemizers should be able to do the same. My plan targeted tax relief to middle-class families and seniors. An estimated 20 million Americans and more than half a million Hoosiers benefited.

This year, I'm working to expand federal property tax relief in two ways: 1) allow non-itemizing homeowners to deduct the full value of their property tax bills, and 2) make this relief permanent. Under my plan, a non-itemizing family with $75,000 in taxable income and a $3,000 property tax
bill would receive a $750 tax cut.

With home values falling and our national economy struggling toward recovery, Uncle Sam doesn't deserve a bite at the apple once you've already paid your property tax bill locally. I'll keep you posted on how to claim this relief come tax time next April.

The Senator may have missed this bit of news, but due to the "circuit breaker" legislation passed by Indiana's General Assembly some time ago, homeowners will have had real estate taxes capped in relation to assessed valued. Those ceilings will get lower over the next couple of years.

The Senator also seems to have missed the point of the standard deduction. That idea was conceived to make filing tax returns for lower to mid-range earners easy without them suffering financially. The idea of offering a standard deduction with itemized deductions sort of screws the whole thing up. The choice of itemizing already exists.

If the Senator believes the standard deduction should be increased, he should just say so. If people are struggling, should we offer more help to people able to purchase their homes - as opposed to those who must rent their homes?

In the runup to the 1992 Presidential elections, the late Paul Tsongas coined the term "Pander Bear" - aimed at Bill Clinton's promises of largesse.

Looks like Indiana's Pander Bear is Evan Bayh. Maybe he's running for something.







Truthout 7/10

Bill Scheurer Beyond the Yellow Ribbon: Hope for Returning Veterans
http://www.truthout.org/071009A?n
Bill Scheurer, Truthout: "Extensive information in the popular and scientific press shows that veterans are 'falling through the cracks' of our medical system. In a strange new twist of 'don't ask, don't tell' military culture, many veterans do not tell physicians about their military service and health care practitioners do not ask."

Climate Talks End With Meager Promises
http://www.truthout.org/071009B?n
Richard Harris, NPR News: "International climate talks held in Italy this week ended with little progress. The rich industrial nations wouldn't promise to cut back their emissions in the near term. And China, India and the rest of the developing world wouldn't commit to cutting their emissions, ever."

House Overwhelmingly Rejects Signing Statement
http://www.truthout.org/071009C?n
Walter Alarkon, The Hill: "The House rebuked President Obama for trying to ignore restrictions to international aid payments, voting overwhelmingly for an amendment forcing the administration to abide by its constraints."

Lawsuits Combat Defense of Marriage Act
http://www.truthout.org/071009D?n
Michael B. Farrell, The Christian Science Monitor: "Five years after it became the first state to marry same-sex couples, Massachusetts is taking on the federal government's definition of marriage. While other lawsuits have challenged the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA), which was passed in 1996 and defined marriage as between a man and woman, Massachusetts is the first to argue that Congress overstepped its bounds and violated a state's right to determine what constitutes marriage."

Robert Reich When Will The Recovery Begin? Never.
http://www.truthout.org/071009E?n
Robert Reich, Robert Reich's Blog: "In a recession this deep, recovery doesn't depend on investors. It depends on consumers who, after all, are 70 percent of the US economy. And this time consumers got really whacked. Until consumers start spending again, you can forget any recovery, V or U shaped."

Deepak Bhargava Don't Enshrine Discrimination in Health Care Reform
http://www.truthout.org/071009F?n
Deepak Bhargava, The Huffington Post: "Finally, the country seems serious about reforming health care. But with discussions about a public option, cost control and competition raging, one aspect of achieving true universal coverage is being left out: what to do about immigrants who lack coverage?"

Nicolas Truong The New Insurrectional Thinking
http://www.truthout.org/071009G?n
In Le Monde, Nicolas Truong explains the philosophical and literary antecedents of the French best seller, "The Coming Insurrection," authored by the "Invisible Committee," that advocates anonymity and "blocking everything."

FP morning brief 7/10

Top story:

China has banned Friday prayers at mosques in the restive Xinjiang province, where violence between the Uighur ethnic group and Han Chinese has left more than 150 dead. Government officials have said that Muslims in the region, most of them members of the Uighur minority, should stay at home to pray, rather than gathering for religious services.The rash of violent protests and resultant crackdown, ongoing since Sunday, is the result of long-simmering ethnic and religious tensions in the once-autonomous area. (Foreign Policy's Christina Larson describes the conflict in a Web-exclusive article today.) And, in China's Yunnan province, a 6.0-magnitude earthquake killed at least 300.

To watch:

Cyberattacks continued to slow governmental and banking Web sites in the United States and South Korea. Yesterday, South Korean officials pointed the finger at North Korea.

Europe
As the G-8 summit in L'Aquila comes to a quiet close, China again calls for an end to dollar-dominance in world reserves.
Health officials in Britain warn that a new spate of H1N1, or swine flu, infections threaten an "epidemic." The number of H1N1-related deaths has doubled in two days.
British parliamentarians said they will question managers of the News of the World tabloid, which allegedly hacked into politicians' and celebrities' mobile phones.

Asia
China's central bank is expected to announce that the country's foreign-exchange reserves have reached $2 trillion.
Japanese politicians campaigned in advance of the June 12 elections, in which the ruling Liberal Democratic Party is expected to lose its parliamentary majority.
China details an Australian mining executive for Rio Tinto and accuses him of spying.

Middle East
Bombs killed more than 60 in Iraq -- Mosul saw at least 35 dead -- in the worst day of violence since the repeal of U.S. troops at the end of June.
Protests resumed in Iran, marking the fourth week of disruption.
Kurds in northern Iraq are carrying out the mandates of their constitution, passed two weeks ago, worrying Iraqi and U.S. officials about their separatism.

Americas
Ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya and governmental leader Roberto Micheletti entered a house for talks. They never met face-to-face, and made no progress.
A row continues after U.S. congressional Democrats said the Central Intelligence Agency deliberately misled them.
U.S. carmaker General Motors emerged from government-aided bankruptcy.

Africa
U.S. President Barack Obama leaves the G-8 conference in L'Aquila to head to Accra, Ghana -- his first visit to sub-Saharan Africa as president.
Leaders at the G-8 summit pledged $15 billion in global food aid for farming, in hopes of creating "green revolution" in African agriculture.
The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species said rhinocerous-poaching has reached a 15-year high on the continent.

The stimulus trap

By PAUL KRUGMAN
New York Times

As soon as the Obama administration-in-waiting announced its stimulus plan — this was before Inauguration Day — some of us worried that the plan would prove inadequate. And we also worried that it might be hard, as a political matter, to come back for another round.

Unfortunately, those worries have proved justified. The bad employment report for June made it clear that the stimulus was, indeed, too small. But it also damaged the credibility of the administration’s economic stewardship. There’s now a real risk that President Obama will find himself caught in a political-economic trap.

I’ll talk about that trap, and how he can escape it, in a moment. First, however, let me step back and ask how concerned citizens should be reacting to the disappointing economic news. Should we be patient and give the Obama plan time to work? Should we call for bigger, bolder actions? Or should we declare the plan a failure and demand that the administration call the whole thing off?

Before you answer, consider what happens in normal times.

When there’s an ordinary, garden-variety recession, the job of fighting that recession is assigned to the Federal Reserve. The Fed responds by cutting interest rates in an incremental fashion. Reducing rates a bit at a time, it keeps cutting until the economy turns around. At times it pauses to assess the effects of its work; if the economy is still weak, the cutting resumes.

During the last recession, the Fed repeatedly cut rates as the slump deepened — 11 times over the course of 2001. Then, amid early signs of recovery, it paused, giving the rate cuts time to work. When it became clear that the economy still wasn’t growing fast enough to create jobs, more rate cuts followed.

Normally, then, we expect policy makers to respond to bad job numbers with a combination of patience and resolve. They should give existing policies time to work, but they should also consider making those policies stronger.

And that’s what the Obama administration should be doing right now with its fiscal stimulus. (It’s important to remember that the stimulus was necessary because the Fed, having cut rates all the way to zero, has run out of ammunition to fight this slump.) That is, policy makers should stay calm in the face of disappointing early results, recognizing that the plan will take time to deliver its full benefit. But they should also be prepared to add to the stimulus now that it’s clear that the first round wasn’t big enough.

Unfortunately, the politics of fiscal policy are very different from the politics of monetary policy. For the past 30 years, we’ve been told that government spending is bad, and conservative opposition to fiscal stimulus (which might make people think better of government) has been bitter and unrelenting even in the face of the worst slump since the Great Depression. Predictably, then, Republicans — and some Democrats — have treated any bad news as evidence of failure, rather than as a reason to make the policy stronger.

Hence the danger that the Obama administration will find itself caught in a political-economic trap, in which the very weakness of the economy undermines the administration’s ability to respond effectively.

As I said, I was afraid this would happen. But that’s water under the bridge. The question is what the president and his economic team should do now.

It’s perfectly O.K. for the administration to defend what it’s done so far. It’s fine to have Vice President Joseph Biden touring the country, highlighting the many good things the stimulus money is doing.

It’s also reasonable for administration economists to call for patience, and point out, correctly, that the stimulus was never expected to have its full impact this summer, or even this year.

But there’s a difference between defending what you’ve done so far and being defensive. It was disturbing when President Obama walked back Mr. Biden’s admission that the administration “misread” the economy, declaring that “there’s nothing we would have done differently.” There was a whiff of the Bush infallibility complex in that remark, a hint that the current administration might share some of its predecessor’s inability to admit mistakes. And that’s an attitude neither Mr. Obama nor the country can afford.

What Mr. Obama needs to do is level with the American people. He needs to admit that he may not have done enough on the first try. He needs to remind the country that he’s trying to steer the country through a severe economic storm, and that some course adjustments — including, quite possibly, another round of stimulus — may be necessary.

What he needs, in short, is to do for economic policy what he’s already done for race relations and foreign policy — talk to Americans like adults.

Whip Inflation Now

By DAVID BROOKS
New York Times

Over the past few decades, health care inflation has exceeded the general rise in prices by about 2.5 percent a year. These inexorably rising costs are bankrupting the nation, walloping businesses and squeezing middle-class salaries.

Fortunately, the country now has an excellent opportunity to change that. We have a president fervently committed to reducing health care inflation. We have a budget director who is perhaps the nation’s leading expert on the issue. We have a fiscal crisis staring us in the face, just to focus the mind.

And what is the result so far? Failure. Overwhelming, amazing failure.

The health care bills now winding their way through Congress would cover many of the uninsured. They would pay for most of the costs associated with that expanded coverage. But they would do little to change the fundamental incentives that drive health care inflation.

Health care providers would still largely rely on a fee-for-service system. They could still ignore cost-benefit analyses when deciding what treatments to provide.

As Alec MacGillis reported in a front-page piece in The Washington Post this week, “All signs in Washington suggest that cost considerations will be kept at arm’s length as health-care legislation moves forward.” As my colleague David Leonhardt wrote in his column this week, “The current health care system is hard-wired to be bloated and inefficient,” and health care economists don’t see the current bills doing enough to fix that.

The basic problem is that the American people have gotten used to high-tech, all-everything health care, under the illusion that they don’t have to pay for it and that it’s always better for them. Politicians are unwilling to force voters and donors to give up that sort of system, even the parts that are ineffective.

There are several ideas floating around that could reduce inflation, but they are neutered in the current bills. For example, many people believe that comparative effectiveness research would bend the cost curve. The current bills would pay for that research but negate the effects by allowing everybody to ignore the findings.

Many people believe that ending the tax exemption on employer health benefits would reduce costs and make consumers more conscious of cost considerations. But the House has rejected that, and the Senate is walking away from even capping that tax exemption.

Many people believe that a public plan would save money through lower administrative costs and because a government-controlled system would allow the government to ram through cost reductions. But lower administrative costs, even if they materialized, would not affect the fundamental incentives driving inflation. And the current public plan wouldn’t really change the system. A Congressional Budget Office analysis of the public plan provisions in the bill from the Senate committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) projected that they would neither increase the total number of people insured nor substantially affect costs, “largely because the public plan would pay providers of health care at rates comparable to privately negotiated rates.”

Then there are all these mysterious deals the White House is cutting with industry groups. They sound good, but it’s not clear what industry is getting in return, and they, too, would not alter the fundamental incentives.

Keith Hennessey, the former chief of the National Economic Council, studied the HELP bill and wrote on his blog that aside from one provision, “I can find nothing that would provide information and incentives to consumers, medical professionals, health plans, employers or government to slow the growth of long-term private health care spending.”

Wait, it gets worse.

The bills not only fail to reduce health care inflation, they make it harder to fix the larger fiscal mess later. They do that by taking the chits we could use to balance the overall budget and using them to cover the $1.3 trillion in new federal health spending.

To get our overall fiscal house in order, we’re going to need to raise taxes on the rich. The House bill would use that chit to pay for expanded coverage. We’re going to have to take a bite out of Medicare spending. The administration plan does that to pay for expanded coverage. We’re going to have to tax people in the middle class more. The Congressional bills effectively do that by mandating coverage and then failing to subsidize middle-class consumers. But that burden, too, is to pay for new coverage.

Instead of brightening the fiscal picture, these bills make it immeasurably worse.

Health care inflation is not some optional side issue that can be left out of reform. It is the core problem that undermines the viability of the health care system, the federal budget and the economy as a whole. Maybe the administration will provide some last-minute solution in conference or somewhere else. But right now the prospects don’t look good.

Thursday, July 9, 2009

Truthout 7/9

House Intel Chair: CIA Has Misled Us for Years
http://www.truthout.org/070909A?n
Pamela Hess, The Associated Press: "Democrats are accusing senior CIA officials of repeatedly misleading Congress, but Republicans say the allegations are just political maneuvering to protect House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The accusations come as lawmakers prepare to debate intelligence legislation - a bill President Barack Obama has threatened to veto."

Mark Weisbrot US Leaves Honduras to Its Fate
http://www.truthout.org/070909B?n
Mark Weisbrot, The Guardian UK: "In Honduras we have the entire world refusing to recognize the coup government, and equally large demonstrations (in a country of only seven million people, and with the military preventing movement for many of them) demanding Zelaya's return. The problem in Honduras is that their military - unlike the Venezuelan military - has more experience in organized repression, including selective assassinations carried out during the 1980s, when the country was known as a military base for US operations in El Salvador and Nicaragua."

Energy Industry Sways Congress With Misleading Data
http://www.truthout.org/070909C?n
Abrahm Lustgarten, ProPublica: "The two key arguments that the oil and gas industry is using to fight federal regulation of the natural gas drilling process called hydraulic fracturing -- that the costs would cripple their business and that state regulations are already strong -- are challenged by the same data and reports the industry is using to bolster its position."

Silent Protests in Iran Expected to Draw Thousands
http://www.truthout.org/070909D?n
Borzou Daragahi and Ramin Mostaghim, The Los Angeles Times: "Protesters and security forces have begun to gather in the streets of downtown Tehran as the nation braces for a potential day of violent confrontations."

Schumer: Immigration Bill to Be Ready by Labor Day
http://www.truthout.org/070909E?n
Suzanne Gamboa, The Associated Press: "The lead Democrat steering an immigration overhaul through the Senate said Wednesday he expects to have a bill ready by Labor Day that is more generous to highly skilled immigrant workers than those who are lower skilled and is tough on future waves of illegal immigration."

Health Care Reform Will Succeed This Time, Say Experts
http://www.truthout.org/070909F?n
Laura Woodhead, Talk Radio News Service: "America is ready for health care reform both socially and politically, health care professionals argued Wednesday. Speaking at a discussion on health care reform at the Campus Progress National Convention, the experts argued that the mood within the US makes this year the perfect time to implement legislation, unlike 1993 when a variety of conflicting factors lead to the defeat of President Bill Clinton's health care plan."

Fabrice Rousselot and Le Monde Repression in Urumqi
http://www.truthout.org/070909G?n
Le Monde's editorialist and Fabric Rousselot at Liberation decry the Chinese policies that have led to violence in Xinjiang.

Normon Solomon Escalation Scam: Troops in Afghanistan
http://www.truthout.org/070909R?n
Norman Solomon, Truthout: "The president has set a limit on the number of US troops in Afghanistan. For now. That's how escalation works. Ceilings become floors. Gradually. A few times since last fall, the Obama team has floated rising numbers for how many additional US soldiers will be sent to Afghanistan. Now, deployment of 21,000 more is a done deal, with a new total cap of 68,000 US troops in that country."

Thousands Protest in Iran, Defying Crackdown Vow
http://www.truthout.org/070909S?n
Nasser Karimi, The Associated Press: "Thousands of protesters streamed down avenues of the capital Thursday, chanting 'death to the dictator' and defying security forces who fired tear gas and charged with batons, witnesses said. The first opposition foray into the streets in 11 days aimed to revive mass demonstrations that were crushed in Iran's post-election turmoil."

Pharmacists Can't Refuse Plan B Pill, Appeals Court Says
http://www.truthout.org/070909M?n
Carol J. Williams, The Los Angeles Times: "Pharmacists are obliged to dispense the Plan B pill, even if they are personally opposed to the 'morning after' contraceptive on religious grounds, a federal appeals court ruled Wednesday."

Michael Schwartz Colonizing Iraq: The Obama Doctrine?
http://www.truthout.org/070909U?n
Michael Schwartz, TomDispatch.com: "Here's how reporters Steven Lee Myers and Marc Santora of The New York Times described the highly touted American withdrawal from Iraq's cities last week: 'Much of the complicated work of dismantling and removing millions of dollars of equipment from the combat outposts in the city has been done during the dark of night. Gen. Ray Odierno, the overall American commander in Iraq, has ordered that an increasing number of basic operations - transport and re-supply convoys, for example - take place at night, when fewer Iraqis are likely to see that the American withdrawal is not total.' Acting in the dark of night, in fact, seems to catch the nature of American plans for Iraq in a particularly striking way."

Growing Numbers of Poor People Swamp Legal Aid Offices
http://www.truthout.org/070909V?n
Tony Pugh, McClatchy Newspapers: "After years of funding shortfalls, legal aid societies across the country are being overwhelmed by growing numbers of poor and unemployed Americans who face eviction, foreclosure, bankruptcy and other legal problems tied to the recession. The crush of new clients comes as the cash-strapped agencies cut staff and services."

Rite Aid Facility Symbolic of Unions' Legislation Push
http://www.truthout.org/070909W?n
Patrick J. McDonnell, The Los Angeles Times: "A chilly, high desert dawn was breaking as the workers trickled onto the sprawling grounds of Rite Aid Corp.'s distribution warehouse, a behemoth box at the edge of the Mojave. Awaiting them outside was a makeshift table set with hot coffee and doughnuts, courtesy of the International Longshore & Warehouse Union. Employees donning yellow union T-shirts briefly savored a hard-won triumph as they continue a bitter, three-year-plus campaign."

Nicolas Truong The New Insurrectional Thinking
http://www.truthout.org/070909X?n
In Le Monde, Nicolas Truong explains the philosophical and literary antecedents of the French best seller, "The Coming Insurrection," authored by the "Invisible Committee," that advocates anonymity and "blocking everything."

NOW Peace and Prosperity for the West Bank?
http://www.truthout.org/070909Y?n
NOW: "Once one of the most dangerous and violent cities in the West Bank, Jenin was the scene of frequent battles between the Israeli military and Palestinian fighters, and was the hometown of more than two dozen suicide bombers. Today, however, there's been a huge turnaround. Jenin is now the center of an international effort to build a safe and economically prosperous Palestinian state from the ground up."

FP Morning Brief 7/9

Top story:

Iraq had its worst day of violence since the withdrawal of U.S. troops from major cities last weeks with multiple suicide bombings in killing at least 41 people. The worst attack was in the city of Tal Afar, where one bomber attacked a court where terrorism cases are tried and then a second one detonated the crowd that gathered. Three roadside bombs in Baghdad killed seven other people.

The bombings come just a twin car bombings near Mosul and the release of a recorded statement attributed to Al Qaeda in Iraq commander Abu Omar al-Baghdadi calling on Iraqis to continue fighting until all U.S. troops have left Iraq. While several insurgent groups have recently renounced Iraqi-on-Iraqi violence, Baghdadi's statement called for attacks on Shiites, warning that Iraq's Sunni population is becoming weaker.

Milestone:

China has supplanted the United States as Brazil's largest trading partner.

Europe
G8 leaders in Italy are meeting to discuss an agreement on carbon emissions, but developing nations are reluctant to sign on. The leaders are also seeking an agreement to restart the stalled Doha round of trade talks in 2010.
Two Serbian police were attacked with a rocket-propelled grenade near the Kosovo border.
The Bank of England surprised many analysts by holding interest rates steady.

Asia
Violence in China's Xinjiang province is subsiding as authorities crack down on Uighur demonstrators.
Pakistan says that 2 million refugees displaced by fighting in the Swat Valley will be allowed to return home next week.
A massive bombing in central Afghanistan killed at least 25.

Middle East
The Iranian opposition has called for new demonstrations today, and the government says security forces will "smash" any protests.
Five Iranian officials held by U.S. forces in Iraq were released.
A report by Israel's national security chief argued that there is no Palestinian leadership and that living with a nuclear Iran is not an option.

Americas
Expectations are low as former Honduran President Manuel Zelaya meets with the leaders who ousted him today.
The killing of an anti-crime activist has sparked anger in Mexico.
Colombian president Alvaro Uribe has backed hostage negotiations with the Farc rebels.

Africa
Mediator Kofi Annan has handed over names of those suspected of instigating violence in the 2007 Kenyan elections to the International Criminal Court.
Human Rights Watch has sharply criticized the government of Equatorial Guinea for plundering their country's oil wealth.
South Africa's labor department is attempting to mediate a resolution to the strikes that have halted work at the World Cup site.